Can AI Models Predict Horse Races?

When it comes to unpredictable sports, horse racing is definitely one of the top contenders. This is a sport where even the most experienced handicappers cannot predict the outcome multiple times in a row. Why? Well, horse racing is a sport where many different variables come into play.

In other words, there are hundreds of factors that can influence the outcome of a race, which are often beyond our human capabilities of research. Even if we find and analyze all the different variables that influence the outcome of the race, the correlation between them will bring millions of combinations, and humans cannot analyze everything on their own.

But how about artificial intelligence (AI)? Can AI find, analyze, and give us the probability for every horse that participates in the race?

Well, yes, and no. Even though AI has become more powerful, it still cannot predict horse races with 100% accuracy. However, some handicappers already use AI to improve their win/loss ratio, and let’s talk more about how it works and what benefits can come from AI in terms of horse racing betting.

AI vs Human Approach In Analyzing Horse Races

Let’s start with the old method - humans. When a human handicapper studies a race, they are about to place a bet on, they focus on a handful of details. In most cases, they look at the last few performances, the jockey's experience, the trainer’s reputation and strategies, the speed of the horse, and how tired it is.

An AI model, on the other hand, doesn’t stop at a few data points. They usually process millions of them in seconds. They look at every single measurable data point from a horse race, gathering as much relevant information as possible. This includes years of race results, track conditions, sectional times, horse ages, breeding data, jockey and trainer win percentages.

But that’s not the most impressive part of AI. The ‘wow’ factor comes when AI starts looking for correlation between millions of data points, which ends up in billions of connections. So, what’s the system has enough data, AI begins to find relationships that aren’t immediately visible to the human eye.

For example, AI can find out that a horse performs really well on firm turf, while it struggles when the temperature drops below a certain point.

So, on paper, AI can analyze horse races better, and therefore should make a better decision on which horse is going to win, right?

Well, sort of. There are a couple of problems with this method, though. First of all, there is the problem with the data. In most cases, AI cannot find information on how firm the surface is or the heartbeat of a horse during a race. Yes, horse racing is full of data points, but that information is usually not publicly available.

Secondly, there is the gut feeling that AI doesn’t have. A human handicapper or a professional bettor develops a gut feeling (something that cannot be explained), which can point them to a certain horse even though, on paper, the horse has a low chance of winning.

That’s why sometimes, human handicappers can predict an upcoming race even better than AI. So, if you think that your handicapping skills are irreplaceable, or that you’re better than AI, maybe you should think about joining a horse tournament where you can show off your betting skills.

How the AI Predictions Are Made

Now, let’s learn how AI models actually make a decision. First of all, developers feed it thousands (sometimes millions) of historical race results, where the outcomes are already known.

The model then scans every data point and possible factor and finds a correlation between metrics. This is the only thing that humans cannot do, since there are millions of combinations.

This process is also known as machine learning. Over time, AI starts to recognize trends that consistently lead to success. With each new race it analyzes, the system gets better and better.

At the end, AI doesn’t usually say, “This horse will win the race.” Instead, it gives you a probability report, or in other words, the chance for each horse winning the race (Horse A 42% chance, Horse B 33% chance, and so on).

In reality, this is how professional bettors think, and no system or handicapper can say that a certain horse will win with 100% probability.

Is AI Really Accurate in Horse Racing Betting?

So, we know that AI can do the heavy lifting and analyze millions of data points to produce a probability report, but how accurate is it?

Well, you have to understand that even with all that data, AI models can’t account for everything. As we mentioned before, horse racing is a sport where thousands of variables come into play, and most are unpredictable (like the horse's mood on race day).

So, in most cases, the variables that AI analyzes are hard, if not impossible, to quantify. A horse could wake up restless or not in the mood, a jockey could mistime a move, there can be a collision, or the horse might stall at the gates.

Horse racing isn’t exactly a sport with clear, rule-based environments. We are talking about a chaotic sport, influenced by living, breathing athletes (both human and animal). This makes horse racing unpredictable, at least for today’s capabilities of AI.

However, AI still has value because it can improve consistency. It also reduces emotional bias and offers a data-driven decision-making system that can improve your win/loss ratio. Some people suggest that AI has helped them improve their betting efficiency.

The question is, have you tried AI horse racing betting, or are you still hardcore going with the manual system that has been proven for years?